Abstract
From forecast to action: An investigation of impact-based warnings
Between 2000 and 2019, natural hazards and extreme weather events claimed approximately 1.23 million lives, affected over 4 billion people, and resulted in economic losses of around US$2.97 trillion worldwide. With climate change increasing the frequency and severity of severe weather events globally, it is critically important to develop effective strategies for disaster risk communication and reduction. One strategy proposed is the implementation of impact-based warnings (IBW). However, to develop and improve the efficacy of IBW, it is critical to understand (a) how warnings are issues and (b) how the public perceive and respond to them.
In this talk, I present results from two projects looking at warnings from across the value chain. In collaboration with four meteorological agencies in Southeast Asia, the first project focuses on the decision-making processes of forecasters in issuing warnings. We found that forecasters provided warnings indicating higher likelihoods for high severity impacts than low severity impacts, despite these impacts being described as having the same explicit numerical likelihood of occurrence. In the second part of the talk, I take a UK perspective, presenting the results of analysis of Met Office data collected from 32 post-event surveys run after amber/red weather warnings between 2014 and 2022 (n=16,276). This analysis investigates whether warning perceptions and behavioural responses significantly differed according to: the type of event the warning was issued for (e.g., snow, wind, heat), warning colour, storm naming and socio-demographic characteristics. I conclude with key implications for improving the communication of IBW and discuss how these insights can enhance protective action and preparedness.